Voters angered President Biden because of World War II state of the economy probably Leads to another epic "Bombing" For Democrats in November’s midterm elections — which could cost them more than 40 seats in Congress and control of both houses, according to a new study.
The "misery index" of inflation and unemployment reached 12.7% in June, which is Forecast by Bloomberg Economics to be at 12% in October.
That reading would rival the level that followed the Great Recession of 2008, according to Bloomberg, which said the index serves as a leading indicator of election outcomes.
In the 2010 midterm elections, Democrats lost 63 House seats and six Senate seats.
Voters' reaction led then-President Barack Obama to admit that the "modest" results were "bombing," adding later: "It feels bad."
The November elections are shaping up against the backdrop of growing disapproval of Biden’s job performance, at 59 percent Give him a thumbs down last week and hit a record low rating for any recent president.
Historical patterns suggest that Republicans can expect to win 30 to 40 House seats and a few Senate seats, according to Bloomberg.
Democrats now have a slim majority of between 220 and 211 in the House of Representatives, where there are four vacant seats.
The margin is narrower in the Senate, which is evenly divided, 50-50, with Vice President Kamala Harris Casting 23 votes broke the tie.
After inflation Set a record in 40 years From 9.1% in June, only one state — New Hampshire — has a misery index below 10%, according to Bloomberg.
"The reason the misery index is so important is because it’s really real misery for a lot of Americans," Republican pollster Frank Luntz told Bloomberg.
“Food and fuel inflation is very high and very comprehensive, and it affects every voter in every community in every state.”
"When everyone is affected, the electoral impact is multiplied," Luntz added.
In the swing state of Nevada — where there is an unexpected Democratic Senate election and several tight races for the House of Representatives — Sierra Farley, a single mother of two, said she will have to move out of her Summerlin home, outside Las Vegas, because rent will rise $450 a month. in September.
"I just got a raise and I still can’t afford my rent," Farley, 31, told Bloomberg.
The Bloomberg report follows the Federal Reserve’s decision last week Raising the reference rate by 0.75%, marking the second largest consecutive rise since the early 1980s as the Biden administration attempts to lower rates by increasing the cost of borrowing.
Meanwhile, the nation’s GDP decreased for the second consecutive quarterformally indicating a recession, Which prompted Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen To claim that "it’s not what we see now when you look at the economy."
"Job creation continues; household finances remain strong. Consumers are spending and businesses are growing," she said Thursday.
Representative Gwen Moore (Democrat of Whiskey) said Democrats should stop arguing about whether the US economy is in a recession and instead acknowledge the economic pain of Americans.
“People experience this. This is not an abstraction for these people,” she told Bloomberg.
"When they get to the gas pump, the grocery store, they are in their own personal depression or stagnation, no matter the numbers."