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’Misery Index' shows Democrats face midterm defeat as voters anger Biden

Voters angered President Biden because of World War II state of the economy probably Leads to another epic "Bombing" For Democrats in November’s midterm elections — which could cost them more than 40 seats in Congress and control of both houses, according to a new study.

The "misery index" of inflation and unemployment reached 12.7% in June, which is Forecast by Bloomberg Economics to be at 12% in October.

That reading would rival the level that followed the Great Recession of 2008, according to Bloomberg, which said the index serves as a leading indicator of election outcomes.

In the 2010 midterm elections, Democrats lost 63 House seats and six Senate seats.

Voters' reaction led then-President Barack Obama to admit that the "modest" results were "bombing," adding later: "It feels bad."

The November elections are shaping up against the backdrop of growing disapproval of Biden’s job performance, at 59 percent Give him a thumbs down last week and hit a record low rating for any recent president.

The "misery index" of inflation and unemployment came to 12.7% in June and Bloomberg Economics expects it to be at 12% in October.
Gas prices are listed at a gas station in Rosemead, California on July 19, 2022.
“Food and fuel inflation is very high and very comprehensive, and it affects every voter in every community in every state.”
FREDERIC J. BROWN / AFP via Getty Images
US President Joe Biden delivers remarks on US gas prices from the Southern Courtroom of the White House on March 31, 2022 in Washington.
A new poll shows that 59% of respondents disapprove of Biden’s record in office.
Anna Moneymaker / Getty Images

Historical patterns suggest that Republicans can expect to win 30 to 40 House seats and a few Senate seats, according to Bloomberg.

Democrats now have a slim majority of between 220 and 211 in the House of Representatives, where there are four vacant seats.

The margin is narrower in the Senate, which is evenly divided, 50-50, with Vice President Kamala Harris Casting 23 votes broke the tie.

Ground beef and steaks for sale at a grocery store on July 13, 2022 in Redondo Beach, California.
Inflation hit a 40-year high of 9.1% in June.
Patrick T. Fallon/AFP via Getty Images
Graphic showing the number of Republicans and Democrats in the House and Senate.
Inflation could cost Democrats control of both the House and Senate.

After inflation Set a record in 40 years From 9.1% in June, only one state — New Hampshire — has a misery index below 10%, according to Bloomberg.

"The reason the misery index is so important is because it’s really real misery for a lot of Americans," Republican pollster Frank Luntz told Bloomberg.

“Food and fuel inflation is very high and very comprehensive, and it affects every voter in every community in every state.”

"When everyone is affected, the electoral impact is multiplied," Luntz added.

Frank Luntz, CEO of FIL, Inc.  , during the Milken Institute World Conference on October 18, 2021 in Beverly Hills, California.
Polls Republican Frank Luntz Global inflation affects the decision-making process of voters.
Patrick T. Fallon/AFP via Getty Images

In the swing state of Nevada — where there is an unexpected Democratic Senate election and several tight races for the House of Representatives — Sierra Farley, a single mother of two, said she will have to move out of her Summerlin home, outside Las Vegas, because rent will rise $450 a month. in September.

"I just got a raise and I still can’t afford my rent," Farley, 31, told Bloomberg.

The Bloomberg report follows the Federal Reserve’s decision last week Raising the reference rate by 0.75%, marking the second largest consecutive rise since the early 1980s as the Biden administration attempts to lower rates by increasing the cost of borrowing.

Meanwhile, the nation’s GDP decreased for the second consecutive quarterformally indicating a recession, Which prompted Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen To claim that "it’s not what we see now when you look at the economy."

US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen talks about the state of the US economy during a press conference at the Treasury Department in Washington, DC, July 28, 2022.
US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen emphasized that the country is not experiencing a recession.
Saul Loeb/AFP via Getty Images

"Job creation continues; household finances remain strong. Consumers are spending and businesses are growing," she said Thursday.

Representative Gwen Moore (Democrat of Whiskey) said Democrats should stop arguing about whether the US economy is in a recession and instead acknowledge the economic pain of Americans.

“People experience this. This is not an abstraction for these people,” she told Bloomberg.

"When they get to the gas pump, the grocery store, they are in their own personal depression or stagnation, no matter the numbers."

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Democrats seem to be turning to climate and health after ups and downs

Washington – It’s been over a year and I’ve seen a lot of ups and downs. Now, a democratic economic package focused on the climate and health Sponsorship faces hurdles but appears headed toward passing the party line by Congress next month.

The approval would allow President Joe Biden and his party to claim a win as the top priority as the November elections approach. They haven’t forgotten that they came close to approving a much larger version of the bill last year, only to see Senator Joe Manchin, D.

This time, Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer, DNY, penned a settlement package with Manchin, to everyone’s surprise, turning West Virginia from pariah into partner. This measure is more modest than previous versions, but it still checks the boxes on issues that make Democrats durable.

Here’s what they encounter:

What is in it?

This measure will raise $739 billion in revenue over 10 years and spend $433 billion. More than $300 billion will be left to reduce the federal deficit.

These are meaningful cuts in red ink. But it is small compared to the $16 trillion in new debt that the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office expects to accrue over the next decade.

The package will save consumers and government money by reducing prescription drug prices, and will support the private sector health Insurance for millions of people. It will boost the IRS budget so the tax agency can collect more unpaid taxes.

The plan will promote clean energy and offshore energy drilling, a balance that Manchin, the fossil fuel champion, has demanded. It will also collect new taxes from the largest companies and wealthy hedge fund owners.

It’s a small part of the $3.5 trillion package Biden proposed early in his presidency, which also depicts payments for initiatives like paid family leave and universal preschool. It’s also smaller than the nearly $2 trillion alternative that passed the House last November after Manchin demanded cuts, then derailed the deal anyway, citing inflation concerns.

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It is now called the "Law of Reducing Inflation," but…

… will you do that? It certainly can, but there are defectors.

First, some context.

According to one inflation gauge that the Federal Reserve studies closely, prices jumped 6.8% in June from a year ago, the largest increase in four decades. This came on the heels of government figures that showed the economy contracted again in the last quarter, adding to recession fears.

"Improving tax collection, drug savings and deficit reduction will put downward pressure on inflation," the Committee on Responsible Federal Budget said Friday. Regarding the delirium review, the bipartisan financial watchdog group described the legislation as "the kind of package that lawmakers should put in place to help the economy in many ways."

"Reducing deficits almost always reduces inflation," Jason Furman, a Harvard economics professor who has been President Barack Obama’s chief economic adviser, wrote Friday in the Wall Street Journal. The measure will also reduce inflation by slowing the growth of prescription drug prices, he said.

A more realistic assessment came from the University of Pennsylvania’s Ben Wharton budget model, which analyzes economic issues.

"The law will increase inflation very slightly through 2024 and reduce inflation thereafter. Point estimates are statistically indistinguishable from zero, indicating low confidence that the legislation will have any impact on inflation," the group wrote on Friday.

A chorus of Republicans says the Democrats' bill would be extremely harmful. Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, R-Kentucky, calls it a "giant package of massive new job-killing tax increases, the Green New Deal madness that will kill American energy, and prescription drug socialism that will leave us with new, life-saving fewer." Drugs."

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Upcoming changes

The 725-page scale will likely change somewhat.

Schumer said last week that Democrats plan to add language aimed at lowering costs for patients with insulin, a diabetes drug that can cost hundreds of dollars a month.

Insulin price restrictions have been a highlight of the Democrats' biggest package of the past year, including a cap of $35 a month for patients who get the drug through Medicare or private insurance companies. But that fell apart this year as the measure was scaled back.

Senator Jane Shaheen, DN.H. , and Susan Collins, R-Min, Invoice Determining the Price of Insulin. The prospects for this measure diminished after the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office estimated it would cost about $23 billion and actually increase the price of insulin. Nor did lawmakers take out the 10 Republicans who would be needed to succeed in the 50-50 Senate, where most bills need 60 votes.

It’s unclear what the new insulin language will do to Democrats. Previous language requiring private insurers to cap insulin at $35 a month would violate room rules, which only allow for benefits that primarily affect the federal budget.

Additionally, under the process Democrats use to move the measure through the room by a simple majority, with Vice President Kamala Harris' vote-breaking, he would face multiple amendments in a voting session that could last all night, and there’s no telling whether some will pass.

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horizons

It seems like every Republican is ready to vote "No."

Democrats will need all 50 of their votes in the Senate, as Senator Kirsten Senema, D-Arizona, has yet to make her point.

The Democrats cannot lose more than four House votes to succeed there. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, a Democrat from California, said Friday that when the Senate approves the package, "we will approve it."

Schumer wants Senate approval next week. He admitted that the schedule "will be difficult" because it will take some time for the parliamentarian in the chamber to ensure that the bill complies with the rules of the Senate.

This, too, will take luck. All 50 Democrats, including the independents who support them, will have to be healthy enough to turn up and vote.

This is not guaranteed. The latest highly contagious COVID-19 variant is spreading across the country. The House has 33 senators aged 70 or over, including 19 Democrats.

Senator Richard Durbin, D-Illinois, 77, was the last senator to announce that he had contracted the disease. Senator Patrick Leahy, D-Vatu, 82, was discharged after hip surgery. Both are expected to return next week.

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SPAM is closed due to inflation

It’s the nation’s crises in a can.

Inflation and crime have gotten so bad in Gotham that even cheap meat like spam has to be locked up.

At the Duane Reade store in the Port Authority Bus Depot, the shelf-stable product—only $3.99 a box—is now stored in anti-theft plastic cans.

"I’ve never seen that before!" One of the cashiers laughed while using the magnet to remove a junk mailbox from his cage.

The cashier was among the staff, tourists, and shop clerks who were stunned that the iconic blue and yellow tins are now kept under lock and key—some even mocking the scene as "a kind of tribute to Jeff Koons," For every single viral tweet.

Jenny Kinney, 43, who was visiting from Louisville, Kentucky, was aware of the constant crime waves hitting cities like New York and San Francisco, but still couldn’t believe the "many things in boxes" scene.

"Some of these things are very ridiculous," she said.

With soaring prices and crime, New York City stores have taken to locking up staples like toothpaste and soap to prevent fraudsters from stealing and then selling products on the sidewalk or Online marketplaces like Amazon and eBay.

However, some shoppers were puzzled why spam, along with $1.89 cans of StarKist tuna, were placed under the plastic, while more expensive staples like $5.49 cans of Amy’s soup were not cumbersome.

Crate spam is stupid — and kind of insulting to customers who might buy it," said 46-year-old shopper Dennis Snow.

Snow said he doesn’t think the spam is being stolen in order to "sell it for crack," but rather because the homeless in the area are looking for a quick and easy meal.

SPAM is held in Duane Reade at the Port Authority.
William C. Lopez / NYPOST
A shopper called closed SPAM
One shopper described closed SPAM as an "insult."
William C. Lopez / NYPOST

Delia Kempf, a 28-year-old teacher, agrees, "Someone is stealing this because they need it."

Store employees said thefts have escalated over the past two years, with one estimating at least four thieves each evening shift.

"I don’t think they’re stopping anything," Iggy, 21, a store clerk, said of anti-theft issues. “It is a security theater. If you really need it, you will trample on it.”

The employee’s complaints were insightful: At about 7 p.m. Thursday, a man in a black T-shirt and gray sweatpants opened the glass case for a $38 electric shaver by an employee, and then hooked the machine after a security guard in a yellow shirt walked out the door.

With inflation spiraling out of control — the consumer price index rose 9.1 percent in June from a year ago, even as President Biden this week refused to acknowledge that the nation is in recession despite the economy having contracted for two straight quarters — thieves have found the audacity of a ready market for discounted stolen goods. Among recession-weary consumers.

Seized goods are assumed to result from a rise in crime amid rising inflation.
Seized goods are assumed to result from a rise in crime amid rising inflation.
William C. Lopez / NYPOST

Petty theft complaints for downtown New York City Southern, which include the Port Authority bus terminal, have risen 52 percent – to 1,771, as of July 24 – compared to the same period last year.

Hormel CEO Jim Snee He told analysts last month The prices of their old products are set to rise in late July to cover increased transportation, packaging and meat costs.

A spokeswoman for Walgreens, which owns Duane Reade, declined to explain why spam is locked at this particular location, and that anti-theft devices are installed "in response to theft data."

Liz Tawfik, 57, a home health worker, has complained that the extra security measures are hampering the once-simple shopping experience — and annoying customers like her.

Many customers find the closure annoying.
Many customers find the closure annoying.
William C. Lopez / NYPOST

"If you’re going to catch a train, you want to get something fast, it’s not fast anymore," she said. "You might also have someone take your order at the door and get you what you want."

Not all drug stores have spam shutdowns.

Two other Duane Reades and CVS in the Times Square area, along with Rite Aid and CVS in central Harlem, sold cage-free spam boxes.

"Here, we’re booking ice cream," said Daryl Sibin, 23, an employee of West 44th Street Duane Reade.

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Food Inflation Soared To More Than 10% — Here’s The New Costs Of A Family Dinner

Although inflation which jumped to 9.1% in June The cost of everyday goods is rising, and consumers feel a great deal of pain when it comes to buying food.

According to the Consumer Price Index (CPI) – a broad measure of the price of everyday goods – food prices have outpaced overall inflation, rising 10.4% in June from a year ago. This takes into account the food at home and in restaurants.

Home food inflation, which represents food purchases from grocery stores and supermarkets, rose to 12.2%, confirming that consumers do not get much comfort by trying to cook at home.

The US Department of Agriculture (USDA) It recently raised its forecast for food price increases for 2022. The agency now estimates that all food prices will rise between 8.5% and 9.5% in 2022. Food prices away from home are expected to rise 6.5% to 7.5%, and from Household food prices are expected to grow by 10% to 11%.

Catherine Cullen, director of industry and consumer insights at the National Retail Federation — the nation’s largest retail group — told FOX Business that multiple variables are currently affecting the cost of food.

This includes the war in Ukraine, persistent labor market shortages, fuel costs, drought and other natural disasters in the major markets where wheat and corn are obtained. These factors drive up the costs of products that rely on those elements as well as the cost of animal feed, according to Cullen.

Aside from natural disasters, Cullen noted that outbreaks of bird flu have driven up the cost of poultry and eggs.

Although inflation increases the cost of everyday goods, consumers feel a great deal of pain when it comes to buying food.
Although inflation increases the cost of everyday goods, consumers feel a great deal of pain when it comes to buying food.
Photo by Patrick Fallon/AFP) (Photo by Patrick T. Fallon/AFP via Getty Images)
Home food inflation, which represents food purchases from groceries and supermarkets, rose to 12.2%.
Home food inflation, which represents food purchases from groceries and supermarkets, rose to 12.2%.
Photo by Brandon Bell/Getty Images

Meredith Wilson, CEO of Emergent Risk International, an intelligence and strategic advisory firm, told FOX Business that food price inflation, which relies on energy price inflation, is particularly harmful to families because costs accumulate with each step along the supply chain.

“Inflation builds up as it makes its way through the supply chain,” Wilson said. “Ultimately, the products they buy in the store are a triple whammy — inflation pricing all inputs and costs before they reach them — the consumer,” Wilson said.

For people on a tight budget, these price increases "can be very challenging and lead to cutting back on healthy foods and products, which tend to be more expensive, causing them to buy lower quality, less nutritious foods," she said.

Even Arkansas-based Walmart — the nation’s largest retailer — has recognized that rising costs for necessities for things like food and gas are causing shoppers to fall back on discretionary goods.

"Increasing levels of food and fuel inflation are affecting how customers spend," Walmart CEO Doug McMillon said in an earnings report on Monday.

To see how food prices have changed, FOX Business has broken down the cost increases for popular dinner items using CPI data:

  • Rice: Prices rose 11.9% in June
  • Bread: 10.8%
  • Meat: 8.2%
  • Beef and veal: 4.1%
  • Pork: 9%
  • Poultry: 17.3%
  • Fish and seafood: 11%
  • Fresh vegetables: 6.5%
  • Frozen vegetables: 9.8%
  • Canned vegetables: 14.3%

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How to protect your life from stagnation amid economic uncertainty

New York (AFP) – Gas, food and rent prices are on the rise. The Federal Reserve raises interest rates to its highest level since 2018. The US economy has contracted for two consecutive quarters.

Economists are divided over whether a recession is on the horizon. What is clear is that economic uncertainty is not going away any time soon. But there are steps you can take now to be prepared for whatever is to come.

Yiming MaD., an assistant professor at Columbia University, says the question is not whether a recession will happen but when it will happen. She said people should prepare but not panic.

“Historically, the economy has always been in an ups and downs,” Ma said. "It’s something that just happens, it’s a bit like catching a cold."

But it does suggest that some people’s immune systems are better able to recover than others. It’s the same with finances. If you think an economic recession could destabilize you, here are a few things you can do to prepare.

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Know your expenses and create a budget

Knowing how much you spend each month is key. Ma recommends sitting down and writing how much you spend day in and day out. This will help you know what will happen, what will happen, and unnecessary expenses that you may be able to cut.

"By understanding the money you’re getting and what you’re spending, you may be able to make changes to help you through tough times," advises the FDIC. smart moneyFinancial education programme.

Budgets often reveal expenses that can be eliminated entirely or impulsive spending that can be avoided by planning.

For tips on creating a budget, free courses like " Create a budget (and stick to it) By CT Dollars and Sense, a partnership of Connecticut state agencies, and Nerd Wallet’s Budget Calculator They can be good places to start.

Save what you can

The more nonessential expenses you can cut, the more you can save.

It’s not possible for everyone, but Jane Natalie, co-founder of Troutwood, an app that helps people create financial plans, says it’s ideal to budget to save enough to cover basic necessities for three to six months.

Programs like America savesa not-for-profit campaign by the Consumers Federation of America, could help create a roadmap.

Ma said, if you have a savings account, it is important to check if your bank gives you a good interest rate and to shop if not.

Her advice is to watch monthly fee Or service charges that may eat up your savings. But don’t limit your options. Online banks sometimes offer better rates than traditional banks.

Collect your loans and don’t take any more

With interest rates rising, experts recommend consolidating your loans for a single fixed rate loan and, if possible, paying off as much of your debt as possible.

“Job security tends to be worse when the recession comes, and this is not a great time to build up debt,” Ma said.

But Pay off your current debts Easier said than done. FTC Consumer Advice Guide for Get out of debt It can help you make a plan.

With interest rates rising, it’s also not a great time to get new loans for big expenses like cars, although experts recommend that if you need durable items like vacuum cleaners, stoves or dishwashers, you can buy them as soon as possible to avoid increases prices in the future.

Visit second hand stores and yard sales

Allen Galleon, a home care provider in California, has been affected for months by the soaring prices of household staples like groceries, paper towels, and gas on his commute.

Hi-C’s son’s favorite orange juice, which was $1.99 for a six-pack, is now $2.50.

Since the beginning of the pandemic, when Galleon stopped caring for multiple families for one client to reduce health risks, his family has dealt with financial instability.

One of the choices he made was to buy items like clothes or electronics Used whenever possible, whether from Goodwill, Pawn Shops or Craigslist. And Craigslist lets you search by area, for less driving — which means less gas and hassle.

Negotiate your monthly bills

Since the pandemic, many companies have updated their relief policies and become more flexible with users, according to Kia McAllister Young, principal. America saves.

McCallister Young said that calling monthly providers to negotiate bills — whether it’s utilities, phone or cable service, internet or car insurance — can lead to meaningful savings. Individuals can request the best rate or any available discounts, discounts or vouchers that can result in a reduced monthly fee. She added that if the service provider is competitive with other companies, there is a better chance of getting a discount.

"If you tell them, 'I’m thinking of a change' or you’re shopping, it helps – if they know you’re thinking of leaving, they’ll give you the best rate, and the goal now is to find as much cash flow as possible."

Check out federal programs like Low Income Home Energy Assistance Program, Which helps cover bills, and Lifeline that can help phone bills. If you are not sure if you qualify for any federal or state program, you He can call 211which will connect you to a local professional who can help you.

Switch your groceries

Among the recommendations from American Consumer Federation.

“A lot of stores have price matching, so if you show them that a competitor is selling the same product at a lower price, they will match,” McAllister Young said. "You also want to look at the stores closest to you, so you’re not spending the extra money you might save on gas."

An alternative way to save money on groceries is to check out food sharing apps like oleo, that connects people around their community to share extra groceries, and very good to go, Where customers can buy corporate surplus food at a discount.

Look at government assistance programs

Even with these saving and spending practices, a month’s wage is not always enough to cover important expenses. If this is your case, programs across the country are available to help you.

"Sometimes there just isn’t enough 'end of the month' at the end of the month," said Michael Best, an attorney at the National Consumer Law Center who works on financial services cases.

To take advantage of these resources, check if you qualify for Emergency Rental Assistance ProgramAnd the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance ProgramAnd the Farmers Market Feeding Programor the homeowner assistance fund. All of these are federal programs coordinated by state governments. Some states offer additional local programs for their residents.

Looking for community help

If you are food or housing insecure, find nonprofit or community organizations around you. From housing support And the food pantry to me Utility helpNon-profit organizations across the country can help. National organizations such as Feeding America It hosts food banks in all 50 states.

Kavita Mehra said from Sakhi for South Asian womenan organization that helps survivors of domestic violence in New York City.

Her organization provides housing, food, and emergency cash assistance to people in the community. Between January and June, she said, her group distributed more than $150,000 in emergency cash assistance to survivors who had the most trouble turning out the lights and putting food on the table. This is more than last year.

Food aid organizations such as Abundant harvestAnd the America is hungry And the Save the United States Food Offers maps that allow users to search a nearby food bank by typing in their zip code.

Take care of your mental health

Between worrying about bills and not knowing what your financial future might look like, your stress levels can go to the surface.

"It’s a feverish existence," Galleon said. "You have to do a lot of management, and you have to keep calm, for the sake of your mental health."

Debra Kessin, Clinic Director Light on CBT Anxiety Treatment CenterHe recommends first identifying when your body is under stress. Then she recommends mindfulness exercises such as breathing and touching the wall to calm yourself down and complete The Five Senses for Anxiety Relief Exercise.

Most health insurance covers some form of mental health assistance. If you do not have health insurance, you can search for registered therapists across the country, including through FindTreatment.gov and the American Anxiety and Depression Association Guide.

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The Associated Press receives support from the Charles Schwab Foundation for educational and interpretive reporting to improve financial literacy. The independent foundation is separate from the Charles Schwab & Co. Foundation. The Associated Press is solely responsible for its press.

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Asian stocks rose mostly after the rally on Wall Street | Health, medicine and fitness

By YURI KAGEYAMA – AP . Business Writer

TOKYO (AP) – Asian stocks rose mostly on Friday after a broad rally on Wall Street, but the main index in Hong Kong fell more than 2%.

Investors seem to have become more convinced that The Federal Reserve may ease Sharp interest rate increases are aimed at curbing inflation after the Commerce Department reported US economy shrinking at a rate of 0.9% annually in the most recent quarter. This followed a 1.6% year-over-year decline in the first quarter.

Investors have been cautiously eyeing regional tensions over China’s stance on Taiwan after President Zhou Biden and China, Xi Jinping Talk for more than two hours on Thursday. China left no doubt that it blamed the United States for the worsening relationship, but the White House said the point of the call was to "manage our differences responsibly and work together where our interests coincide."

Hong Kong’s Hang Seng fell 2.3% to 20148.90 and the Shanghai Composite fell 0.7% to 3,258.86 after China’s leaders acknowledge that the economy is suffering It will not reach the official growth target of 5.5% this year.

The announcement came after a planning meeting of the ruling Communist Party on Thursday that Beijing will try to support sagging consumer demand but will stick to tough anti-COVID-19 tactics that have disrupted manufacturing and trade. highlights The high cost of the Xi government is willing to bear To stem the virus in a politically sensitive year as he is widely expected to try to extend his term in power.

Japan’s Nikkei 225 lost 0.3% to 27750.17, while Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 rose 0.8% to 6947.30. South Korea’s Kospi rose 0.4% to 2,446.22 points.

Japanese government data showed that factory production in June jumped 8.9% from the previous month, marking the first rise in three months. The last dilution of Pandemic lockdowns In China to promote Japanese production.

“On the economic data front, the easing of Chinese restrictions also resulted in stronger-than-expected June production for Japan, as the reopening of China is likely to have a positive impact across the region in the second half of the year,” Yip said. Jun Rong, Market Strategist at IG in Singapore.

The rise in the number of COVID-19 infections to record levels in many parts of Japan has raised alarm. But Robert Carnell, ING’s regional head of research for Asia Pacific, thinks Japan’s second-quarter gross domestic product, or gross domestic product, will rebound marginally from the first-quarter contraction.

On Thursday, the S&P 500 rose 1.2% to 4072.43, while the Dow Jones added 1% to close at 32,529.63. The Nasdaq rose 1.1% to 12162.59. The Russell 2000 Index rose 1.3% to 1873.03.

Consecutive quarters of lower GDP are an unofficial, if not definitive, indicator of what economists call a technical recession.

The GDP report indicated weakness across the economy. Consumer spending slowed as Americans bought fewer goods. Business investment declined. Inventories fell as companies slowed to restock shelves, lagging 2 percentage points of GDP.

The Federal Reserve has made a slowing US economy to tame the highest inflation in 40 years its goal by raising interest rates, most recently on Wednesday. The latest GDP report, along with recent weak economic data, may give some investors confidence that the central bank will be able to cushion the scale of any further rate hike.

In a research note Thursday, Jonathan Golub, chief US equity strategist at Credit Suisse Securities, said, “Whether or not we are in a recession will be debated by academics in the coming months. However, today’s report unequivocally reflects significant weakness in activity." economy, and increases the likelihood that the Fed will turn pacifist.”

The central bank raised its key short-term interest rate by 0.75 percentage points on Wednesday, taking it to the highest level since 2018. The move sparked a broad market recovery led by technology shares that helped give the Nasdaq its biggest gain in more than two years. . All major indexes are now on track for weekly gains, extending Wall Street’s strong rally in July.

In a week packed with corporate earnings reports, investors focused on what companies are saying about inflation and the impact of higher interest rates on their businesses and customers.

Technology stocks, retailers, restaurant chains and other companies that rely on direct consumer spending helped lift the S&P 500 index on Thursday. Microsoft shares rose 2.9 percent, Target added 3.1 percent, and McDonald’s rose 1.8 percent.

Telecom services stocks were the only lagging behind. Meta Platforms fell 5.2% after the social media giant said its revenue fell last quarter for the first time ever, weighed down by a drop in ad spend.

Shares of Spirit Airlines rose 5.6 percent after JetBlue It agreed to buy the low-cost airline for $3.8 billion Creation of the fifth largest airline in the country. The day before, Spirit’s attempt to merge with Frontier Airlines had collapsed. Frontier Airlines jumped 20.5%.

In energy trading, benchmark US crude rose 25 cents to $97.28 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. It lost 84 cents to $96.42 on Thursday.

Brent crude, the international pricing standard, rose 3 cents to $101.86 a barrel.

In currency trading, the US dollar fell to 133.24 Japanese yen from 134.27 yen late Thursday. The price of the euro came to $ 1.0220, a slight increase from $ 1.0199.

AP Business Contributing Writer Alex Veiga.

Yuri Kageyama is on Twitter https://twitter.com/yurikagyyama

Copyright 2022 The Associated Press. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed without permission.

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Art industry news: Zelensky’s 'Vogue' photos by Annie Leibovitz launch Republican call to end Ukraine aid and other stories

Art Industry News is a daily summary of the most important developments emerging from the art world and the art market. Here’s what you need to know on Thursday, July 28.

need to read

How the influx of New York galleries affects the Los Angeles scene Eleven New York showrooms have opened in Los Angeles or are coming soon. The Sean Kelly Gallery, Marian Goodman Gallery, and Lisson Gallery all join the likes of Hole, who opened a large space in April. Dealers say the appeal is the artist community, the expanding museum scene, and the reach of Los Angeles collectors. "If you’re an artist and you’re trying to reach the whole world with your art, and if it’s not seen in Los Angeles, it won’t," says Mark Glimcher, CEO of Pace. (Los Angeles Times)

Conservative Party moves after 'Straight White Man' art project A national initiative to fund public art that reflects on the phrase "straight white man" has drawn criticism for a poster by artist Nadina Ali, which reads "Hello straight white men, pass the power!" Conservative MP Niall O’Brien took to social media to denounce the act: "I’m tired of paying taxes on this divisive racist nonsense." The head of Artichoke, the group behind the show, responded with: “Our club’s artwork is Ali… directly asking people in power to simply share it. It is ironic that someone in a position of authority is questioning this request.” (does not depend on)

British Museums Association calls for investment amid inflation The Museums Association is asking the UK government to give museum workers a new "payment settlement" that could match spiraling inflation. In a statement, the association said the rising cost of living was causing "serious problems" and that managers and funding bodies should find ways to make "significant salary offers." [for] The museum’s workforce this fiscal year." (tan)

Annie Zelensky Leibovitz photoshoot paints fire – Vogue 'Private Digital Cover Story' featuring photos of the Ukrainian president and his wife by celebrity photographer Annie Leibovitz is drawing criticism from all sides. Criticizing the photos, artist Adam Bromberg wrote in an Instagram post, "The idea of ​​a conflict zone as a backdrop… is despicable." Meanwhile, photos of Leibovitz have become fodder for political debate, with Texas Republican Representative Mayra Flores tweeting: "Biden: Let’s keep sending billions of dollars in foreign aid to Ukraine, they need it! Truth: Zelensky family pleases us with a cover photo Vogue magazine magazine." (InstagramAnd the NEWSWEEK)

Engines and vibrators

Lots of people having sex in this Polish war museum – Fort Gerhard, a former 19th-century Prussian castle in Świnoujście, near the border with Germany in the north, is a hot spot for lovers, according to an upgraded high-quality CCTV system. The museum published a statement in which it indicated that several pairs of lovers were caught red-handed this summer on camera. He warns people that although there are many dark corners, they are photographed and ask the couples to move to another place. (Notes from Poland)

Black paintings of the early twentieth century get new and considerate names – Sensitive selfies showing black babysitters are on display in a large retrospective "Glenn Philpott: Flesh and Soul" at the Plant House Gallery in Chichester, UK. The White Painter, who was active in the early 20th century, frequently painted his muse and servant Henry Thomas, who was Jamaica. But many of his subjects are unknown. “A lot of this work was just called 'Negro Head.’” said Simon Martin, curator of the exhibition. “In 2022, if we are able to, and we can make the effort, to find out who these people are and where they come from, I think we should. " (The New York Times)

Ford and Mellon Foundations Name Future Fellows with Disabilities 2022 The fellowship has identified 20 disabled American artists, filmmakers, and journalists with an unrestricted grant of $50,000. These include Nisreen Khatibthe director who documented US Vice President Kamala Harris during the election campaign, and Antoine Hunter, also known as Purple Fire Crow, is a deaf original choreographer. (The New York Times)

for art

Lorna Simpson portrays Brittany Greiner for timeNearly three months after being detained in Russia for carrying hemp oil, the WNBA star appeared on the front cover of time Magazine in a photo created by artist Lorna Simpson. US President Biden has approved a scheme to trade convicted arms dealer Victor Bout, who is serving a 25-year prison sentence in the US, in exchange for the release of Greiner and Paul Whelan, an American detained in Russia. They have not yet responded to the offer. (guardian)

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Western fatigue of genocide and a crisis of higher credibility and more comments

State Department: West fatigued by genocide

“Dozens or more non-combatants of Ukrainians are killed every day,” and “they have become more of a statistic than a tragedy,” Alexander J. regrets. motel in the hill. “We were shocked when the first Russian missiles hit Ukrainian cities,” and “we were even more shocked” when “they hit a dispensary and a theater that served as a hideout for dozens of children” in Mariupol that was later settled and “still more shocked” by “mass graves found in several towns North Kyiv ”in April. “Since then, our capacity for true anger has visibly diminished.” Simply put: “We are tired of pursuing an ongoing genocide,” wishing it “go away and stop interfering in our worldly affairs. Because the only way to stop genocide is to use a certain degree of force.”

Eye on Inflation: It’s Worse Than It Looks

’deflation' – smaller packages sold at the same price – 'don’t deceive consumers for too long', Bloomberg Virginia Postrell Consultant. "People notice when their things run out faster." Nor does this cut back on "people who collect inflation statistics". However, "the hidden deflation afflicts today’s economy: a decline in quality, not quantity." The "missing value" of it "is difficult to determine in price indices". Many hotels, for example, have finished the daily housekeeping. "For the same room rate, guests get less service." This is not conceptually different from shrinking a bag of potato chips, however the CPI likely does not reflect this. Such declines in quality are "aggravated" and make consumers feel that they are "taken for granted". Sadly, they are now "so prevalent that today’s frightening inflation numbers are almost certainly understated."

Education Rhythm: Middle Schools Shouldn’t Do Any Harm

New Diversity, Equity, and Inclusion Competencies for the Association of American Medical Colleges, John D. warns. Sealer in Newsweek, serves as a blueprint for injecting the passwords of identity politics — “intersectionality,” “white privilege,” “micro-aggression,” and “alliance” — into medical education. It will “almost inevitably impede freedom of expression, politicize medical education, and lead to policies that are fundamentally harmful.” Indeed, “DEI programs and policies pervade medical education.” Eight of the 24 UNC Chapel Hill DEI officers work at the College Medicine.” Some schools are even quick to “identify education and training program requirements for evaluation, promotion, and tenure.” This not only “harms academic freedom and open discourse,” but “likely to lead to materially harmful medical policy.” If this continues, it may "We soon find that DEI is a poison, not a cure."

Hunter’s Watch: The laptop is an American "tragedy"

The US intelligence chiefs who signed this infamously misleading letter knew, claiming Hunter Biden’s laptop was Russian antiseptic. . . Hunter was working abroad, because their job was to know, Smith points me at the tablet. The two "prestigious newspaper organizations of America" ​​still do not admit that "they were wrong to believe" these allegations. In fact, "even without experience, Hunter Biden has clearly enjoyed one of the most reckless careers in American history" as well as a "safety net – one that has been billed to the American public." Altogether, "It’s just a sad story about an American political family that will never be told."

Neocon: The Crisis of Higher Education’s Credibility

The "big gap between Republicans and Democrats" in views of "higher education widened into a chasm" Jonathan Marks warns against comment: 76% of Democrats but only 32% of Republicans view it positively. And “colleges and universities, facing a short-term and long-term decline in university-age students, cannot afford to despise half the country.” In addition, only 48% of Generation Z, which includes all people of college age today, agree that “higher education has a positive impact on the country”; 49% "disagree". They were also "less likely than any other age group to agree that four-year colleges, public or private, are worth the cost of attending. And they were less likely than average to view education after high school as a good investment." This is a big problem with the "young juniors" colleges they "hope to attract".

Collected by Post editorial board

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Nearly 50 percent of Americans are plunging deeper into debt due to rising inflation

More than half of Americans have little or no savings and are expected to go into debt due to rising inflation because they are unable to put together savings or emergency funds.

A nationwide survey of 1,025 adults by Bankrate showed that 51% of Americans said they had little or no emergency money.

And while less than half have savings lined up, a LendingTree A survey of 1,008 consumers in July found that 43 percent of Americans will take out additional debt in the next six months in order to make ends meet, with more than half that number being represented by parents with young children.

It comes as the country saw inflation hit a 41-year high last month as prices of goods and services soared, while economists say there is a 47 percent chance of a recession over the next year.

Bankrate's survey of 1,025 consumers in June showed that 51% said they had little or no savings or emergency funds arrayed as debt expected to grow and a recession predicted.

Bankrate’s survey of 1,025 consumers in June showed that 51% said they had little or no savings or emergency funds arrayed as debt expected to grow and a recession predicted.

It comes as inflation hit a 41-year high of 9.1% in June

It comes as inflation hit a 41-year high of 9.1% in June

More than a third of respondents to the Bankrate survey said their savings are lower now than they were last year, with only 24% saying they have more.

More than a third of respondents to the Bankrate survey said their savings are lower now than they were last year, with only 24% saying they have more.

According to a LendingTree survey, more than three out of five Americans already deal with debt, and credit cards are expected to be the most common reason why nearly half of them plunge into the red.

LendingTree found that among those in debt, 70% had credit card debt, 33% had car loans, 29% had home loans, and 20% had student loans.

Breaking down debtors by age groups, the survey predicted that 55 percent of Generation Zers and 56 percent of Millennials would fall into more debt. Older Americans have done slightly better, with 41 percent of GMs and 21 percent of baby boomers expected to fall into debt.

Rising debt is likely to affect consumer savings, which for a third of Americans is already less than it was last year.

According to a June Bankert survey, 23 percent of Americans have no emergency savings at all, and only 28 percent have savings that are enough for three months of expenses.

About 22 percent of respondents said they could cover the equivalent of three to five months of expenses, but only 27 percent could cover six months or more — the amount recommended by financial experts.

LendingTree found that among those in debt, 70 percent had credit card debt, 33 percent had car loans, 29 percent had home loans, and 20 percent had student loans.

LendingTree found that among those in debt, 70 percent had credit card debt, 33 percent had car loans, 29 percent had home loans, and 20 percent had student loans.

The LendingTree Debt Survey found that those under age 42 are more likely to take on more debt than older Americans.

The LendingTree Debt Survey found that those under age 42 are more likely to take on more debt than older Americans.

When asked how their current emergency funds compare to last year, 34 percent said they have less savings now than before.

About 32 percent said their savings were the same amount, and about 24 percent said they had more savings than they did in 2021. About 10 percent said they had no savings at the time or now.

Bankert found that the number of Americans now worried that their savings might not be enough rose to 58 percent, compared to 44 percent in 2020.

The percentage of Americans who are comfortable with their emergency savings has risen from 54 percent to 42 percent in the past two years, while those [feeling] "An uncomfortable company jumped from a 44 percent majority to a 58 percent majority," Greg McBride, chief financial analyst at Bankrate, said in a statement.

“Inflation, at its highest level in 40 years, will erode the comfort level and purchasing power of your emergency savings.”

According to the full breakdown, 32 percent of respondents said they were very uncomfortable with the amount they saved for emergencies, with 26 percent saying they were "somewhat uncomfortable."

About 29 percent said they were somewhat comfortable with their savings, and only 13 percent said they were very comfortable with their emergency money.

The number of Americans now worried that their savings may not be enough has risen to 58 percent, up from 44 percent in 2020.

The number of Americans now worried that their savings may not be enough has risen to 58 percent, up from 44 percent in 2020.

Along with McBridge, Allen Amaden, CEO of American Consumer Credit Consulting (ACCC), said rising costs of goods are undermining people’s savings as the nation braces for a projected recession by 2023.

Last month, the ACCC found that 48 percent of consumers said rising costs for basic necessities had affected their family’s lifestyle, up from 39 percent in the first quarter.

"Consumers have gone through many different financial stages in a very short period of time which has forced them to pivot multiple times according to the challenge," Amadin said in a statement.

Those changes already appear to be affected as Walmart shares tumbled 10 percent on Tuesday after the retail giant predicted profits would fall as higher food and fuel prices prompted customers to scale back discretionary purchases.

The $361 billion retailer saw its share price drop from $132 to $121 as the market opened Tuesday, with its market capitalization dropping to $325 billion as shares are still down more than 7.7 percent after a slight recovery in the afternoon.

Just a day ago, Walmart, the leading retailer that caters to cost-conscious shoppers, said its full-year profit would fall 11 to 13 percent, compared to the 1 percent it had previously forecast.

This behavior is forcing the nation’s largest retailer, based in Bentonville, Arkansas, to increase discounts on general merchandise such as home furnishings and electronics to move inventory.

It also pledged to cut prices for clothing and general merchandise more sharply than it did in May to reduce the spring backlog.

Walmart shares fell 10 percent on Tuesday morning, with shares continuing to drop more than 7.7 percent after a slight recovery in the afternoon.

Walmart shares fell 10 percent on Tuesday morning, with shares continuing to drop more than 7.7 percent after a slight recovery in the afternoon.

Target, one of Walmart's biggest retail rivals, saw its inventory drop 4.66 percent as of Tuesday afternoon amid heavy losses for retailers across the country.

Target, one of Walmart’s biggest retail rivals, saw its inventory drop 4.66 percent as of Tuesday afternoon amid heavy losses for retailers across the country.

The company said that, excluding the sell-off, full-year earnings per share are expected to decline 10 to 12 percent.

Increased levels of food and fuel inflation are affecting how customers spend, Walmart CEO Doug McMillon said in a statement.

McMillon added that the company expects more pressure on general merchandise in the second half of the year. However, Walmart said it is encouraged by early signs of back-to-school supplies sales.

Shares of rival Target also fell 4.66 percent after Walmart’s warning, which pointed to an "example train wreck for retailers," said Bert Fleckinger, managing director of Strategic Resources Group.

Online shopping didn’t get any better, with Amazon reporting a drop of more than 4.5 percent, and Shopify sank more than 14 percent as it shed 10 percent of its workforce.

Online shopping giant Amazon was not affected by the ripple effects, as the company saw a 4.5 percent decline

Online shopping giant Amazon was not affected by the ripple effects, as the company saw a 4.5 percent decline

Shopify saw a steep decline of more than 14 percent as it began laying off 1,000 employees

Shopify saw a steep decline of more than 14 percent as it began laying off 1,000 employees

In a letter to employees, Shopify CEO Toby Lutke said the company has bet that online shopping will outpace retailers within the next five years, as the pandemic has seen an increase in online purchases.

"It is now clear that the bet did not pay off," Lütke wrote. "In the end, placing this bet was my calling to do so and I got this wrong."

“As a result, we have to say goodbye to some of you today and I am deeply sorry for that,” he added that about 1,000 Shopify employees will be out of work.

Evidence of a decline in consumer spending is mounting, and a subsequent update on US economic growth later this week could show production contracted in the April-June period for the second consecutive quarter.

The news from Walmart comes as the Federal Reserve prepares to announce another significant increase in its benchmark interest rate on Wednesday.

Combined with previous interest rate increases, the Fed’s moves will make borrowing more expensive for individuals and businesses and likely weaken the economy over time.

Many major banks and financial experts also expect the Fed’s move to trigger a recession, with a July survey from an economist. Bloomberg They agree that there is roughly a 50-50 chance that the nation will experience a recession in the next 12 months, up from 30 percent last month.

"[The Fed] James Knightley, ING’s chief international economist, explained to Bloomberg that he is willing to sacrifice growth as he is desperately trying to control inflation with higher interest rates.

"In this environment, we see the obvious risks of curtailing consumer spending while lower corporate profitability means businesses are starting to hold on," he added.

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Jerome Powell and the Federal Reserve are still struggling to understand the crazy economy that has been hit by the pandemic and war

In terms of news related to the economy and inflation, this is an important week. On Tuesday and Wednesday, Jerome Powell and his Fed colleagues will hold a two-day meeting, in which they are expected to raise the federal funds rate by another three-quarters of a percentage point. On Thursday, the Commerce Department will release its preliminary estimates of GDP growth for the three months from April to June. Many economists expect a barely positive reading of inflation-adjusted growth – in the range of zero to one percent year on year. The GDP estimate now released by the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, which includes a batch of economic data, expects growth of negative 1.6 percent – a decline.

If the GDP growth rate comes below zero, it will be the second negative quarter in a row, and it will lead to more headlines around the recession. Although the commonly used general rule is that two quarters of negative growth are indicative of a recession, such headlines would be misleading. Still, Powell and his colleagues, like us, struggle to make sense of the pandemic-hit insane economy and war that shows conflicting signs of strength and weakness. According to the Department of Labor, employers created three hundred seventy-two thousand jobs in June, more than economists had expected. Retail spending also came in stronger than expected. Moreover, second-quarter GDP is likely to be negatively affected by the unusual pandemic-related changes in corporate inventories – things that companies made but not yet sold – which could be reversed in subsequent quarters. But, even taking into account all these factors, the economy has certainly slowed significantly this year, and looking ahead, a recession is a distinct possibility. So why is the Fed still expected to raise interest rates, a policy designed to have a disheartening effect on the economy?

Of course, the answer is inflation, which rose to 9.1 percent in June, the highest rate in more than forty years. Having failed to predict the global rise in rates that began last year, central bankers around the world are inciting each other to raise interest rates sharply. Last month, the Federal Reserve raised the federal funds rate by three-quarters of a percentage point. Earlier this month, the Bank of Canada increased its fellow Americans by raising the benchmark interest rate by a full point. Last week, the European Central Bank (ECB) offered a half-point increase.

These interest rate hikes came despite some signs that inflation may have peaked. In the past month, the price of crude oil has fallen to about the same level it was before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. The price of gasoline has also fallen significantly. In June, the average price of a regular gallon nationwide rose above five dollars for the first time, according to AAA. The national average is currently $4.35.

Powell may welcome those developments this week, but he’s also likely to say it’s too early to change course. Despite the recent slowdown in oil prices, the Fed chief and his foreign counterparts fear inflation could get out of control — the very thing that independent central banks, such as the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank, have been set up to avoid. "We may have reached a tipping point, after which inflationary psychology is spreading and taking hold," the Basel-based Bank for International Settlements, a kind of central banker, warned last month. Powell got the message and appears determined to raise interest rates so that inflation drops significantly over an extended period. “The danger is that… he warned a few weeks ago at the European Central Bank forum in Portugal. “We will not allow the transition from a low inflation environment to a high inflation environment.”

Even when the Fed chief made hawkish comments like these, he also insisted that a recession is not inevitable. In his press conference after last month’s Federal Reserve meeting, he said the US economy is "very strong and well-positioned to handle tighter monetary policy". But, if the Fed and other central banks did such a bad job of predicting higher inflation last year, what reason should they expect that they would get things just right from here? The honest answer is not much.

Powell reckons he has publicly acknowledged the scale of the challenge he and his colleagues face. At the forum in Portugal, he noted that the economic models they have long relied on to analyze inflation — primarily the Phillips curve, which links high inflation to low unemployment — have collapsed since Corona virus pandemic seem. "I think we now understand better how little we understand inflation," Powell admitted.

It’s not just inflation that proves the puzzle. The minutes of the Federal Reserve’s June meeting indicate that its officials are struggling to know how seriously to take all the talk of a recession. “Participants saw that uncertainty about economic growth over the next two years had risen,” the meeting minutes said. "Two of them noted that GDP and GDP have been giving mixed signals lately on the pace of economic growth, making it difficult to determine the underlying momentum of the economy." This is Fedspeak for "Right now, we’re at a loss."

Faced with all this confusion and uncertainty, Powell and his colleagues will probably be relieved not to have another meeting until the second half of September. At this point, what happens to inflation and growth should be more clear — or, at least, that’s what Fed officials are hoping for as they face a decision on whether to adjust, or even stop, raising interest rates. Given the experience of the past two and a half years, they should expect the unexpected. ♦

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